Declining tree growth resilience mediates subsequent forest mortality in the US Mountain West.

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand-level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree-ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die-off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand-level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross- and within-species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large-scale projections of forest die-off under climate change.

Polyploidy and growth-defense tradeoffs in natural populations of western quaking Aspen.

Polyploidy, the expression of more than two sets of chromosomes, is common in plants, and is thought to influence plant trait expression and drive plant species evolution. The degree to which polyploidy influences interactions among physiological processes such as growth and defense in natural populations through its effect on phenotypic variability is poorly understood. We link broad plant genotypic features (including polyploidy) to phenotypic expression of growth and chemical defense in natural populations of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) to examine patterns in resource allocation that might drive growth-defense tradeoffs. Quaking aspen are capable of rapid growth, and are also a primary food plant for a large range of herbivores, including insects and ungulates. While often diploid, aspen can exhibit polyploidy as triploid clones. We tested for the effect of genotype, cytotype (ploidy level, divided between diploids and triploids), and ramet age on relationships between growth and leaf chemistry across natural aspen clones in northern Utah. Substantial genotype variability in growth and leaf chemistry occurred across both cytotypes. Phenolic glycosides, but not condensed tannins, were negatively related to growth. Ramet age was also negatively related to growth. Phenolic glycosides were negatively related to condensed tannins, but only for the diploid clones. Triploid clones exhibited ~ 20% higher levels of phenolic glycosides than diploids. Growth in quaking aspen was likely sacrificed for the production of phenolic glycosides. Our study underscores the importance of considering polyploidy, genetic variability, and ramet age in understanding growth-defense tradeoffs in natural populations of clonal organisms, such as quaking aspen.

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO2.

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and-ultimately-the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

Ecological forecasting of tree growth: Regional fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data to quantify drivers and characterize uncertainty.

Robust ecological forecasting of tree growth under future climate conditions is critical to anticipate future forest carbon storage and flux. Here, we apply three ingredients of ecological forecasting that are key to improving forecast skill: data fusion, confronting model predictions with new data, and partitioning forecast uncertainty. Specifically, we present the first fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data within a Bayesian state-space model at a multi-site, regional scale, focusing on Pinus ponderosa var. brachyptera in the southwestern US. Leveraging the complementarity of these two data sources, we parsed the ecological complexity of tree growth into the effects of climate, tree size, stand density, site quality, and their interactions, and quantified uncertainties associated with these effects. New measurements of trees, an ongoing process in forest inventories, were used to confront forecasts of tree diameter with observations, and evaluate alternative tree growth models. We forecasted tree diameter and increment in response to an ensemble of climate change projections, and separated forecast uncertainty into four different causes: initial conditions, parameters, climate drivers, and process error. We found a strong negative effect of fall-spring maximum temperature, and a positive effect of water-year precipitation on tree growth. Furthermore, tree vulnerability to climate stress increases with greater competition, with tree size, and at poor sites. Under future climate scenarios, we forecast increment declines of 22%-117%, while the combined effect of climate and size-related trends results in a 56%-91% decline. Partitioning of forecast uncertainty showed that diameter forecast uncertainty is primarily caused by parameter and initial conditions uncertainty, but increment forecast uncertainty is mostly caused by process error and climate driver uncertainty. This fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data lays the foundation for robust ecological forecasting of aboveground biomass and carbon accounting at tree, plot, and regional scales, including iterative improvement of model skill.

Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species' distributions.

Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions-through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks-are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.

Spruce beetle outbreak was not driven by drought stress: Evidence from a tree-ring iso-demographic approach indicates temperatures were more important.

Climate change has amplified eruptive bark beetle outbreaks over recent decades, including spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis). However, for projecting future bark beetle dynamics there is a critical lack of evidence to differentiate how outbreaks have been promoted by direct effects of warmer temperatures on beetle life cycles versus indirect effects of drought on host susceptibility. To diagnose whether drought-induced host-weakening was important to beetle attack success we used an iso-demographic approach in Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) forests that experienced widespread mortality caused by spruce beetle outbreaks in the 1990s, during a prolonged drought across the central and southern Rocky Mountain region. We determined tree death date demography during this outbreak to differentiate early- and late-dying trees in stands distributed across a landscape within this larger regional mortality event. To directly test for a role of drought stress during outbreak initiation we determined whether early-dying trees had greater sensitivity of tree-ring carbon isotope discrimination (∆13 C) to drought compared to late-dying trees. Rather, evidence indicated the abundance and size of host trees may have modified ∆13 C responses to drought. ∆13 C sensitivity to drought did not differ among early- versus late-dying trees, which runs contrary to previously proposed links between spruce beetle outbreaks and drought. Overall, our results provide strong support for the view that irruptive spruce beetle outbreaks across North America have primarily been driven by warming-amplified beetle life cycles whereas drought-weakened host defenses appear to have been a distant secondary driver of these major disturbance events.

Stable or seral? Fire-driven alternative states in aspen forests of western North America.

As important centres for biological diversity, aspen forests are essential to the function and aesthetics of montane ecosystems in western North America. Aspen stands are maintained by a nuanced relationship with wildfire, although in recent decades aspen mortality has increased. The need to understand the baseline environmental conditions that favour aspen is clear; however, long-term fire history reconstructions are rare due to the scarcity of natural archives in dry montane settings. Here, we analyse a high-resolution lake sediment record from southwestern, Utah, USA to quantify the compositional and burning conditions that promote stable (or seral) aspen forests. Our results show that aspen presence is negatively correlated with subalpine fir and that severe fires tend to promote persistent and diverse aspen ecosystems over centennial timescales. This information improves our understanding of aspen disturbance ecology and identifies the circumstances where critical transitions in montane forests may occur.

Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States.

Climate-tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41-59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples.